News from Africa, Posts

Globalization is dead! Will it be reborn?

April 17, 2018
Let’s consider evidences.
In Asia (especially in China), pro capita incomes have grown up to 15 times in last ten years. From 600 dollars a year to 9,000 dollars. Three billion people live better, despite inequalities. This growth has led China to become a country with big domestic consumption – when it used to be an exporting country. The parossistic growth of Ali Baba confirms.
In the meantime, the other part of the world hasn’t grown so much. To tell the truth, the entire world has grown very little. As in communicating vessels, if a part – Asia – grows, the other part gets poorer.
And the other part is made of the so-called developed countries’ fixed incomes – most of them are western and “white” countries, such as USA, Europe and Russia.
Africa has always been at the margins of globalization, being worth only 2.3% of world GDP and largely irrelevant from an economic point of view.
In the future, it will be more relevant, but more for itself than for the world game. At a global level, it could only bring chaos, export suffering humanity and terroristic regurgitations. These people will be pulled out by the sole and unique African growth: demography. It will change from 1.3 billion people to 4.3 billion in the coming 80 years.
But let’s go back to money owners – western countries. And their angry people.
Growing inequalities, decreasing fixed incomes, uncertain future. Children live worse than their parents and it seems like politicians didn’t notice it. Today politics is stammering. Trump, Brexit, “5 stelle”, Orban: all results of this movie.
Suddenly people realized their uncertain future. And they protested.
In the past, after the war, baby boomers had 70 carefree years, when all happened inside their countries and out of globalization. There was the Iron Curtain and only USA sold their products – such as Coke – all around the world.
All grew and increased within each country. People earned a lot, made projects, bought houses. They became middle class people and – as it happened in USA – run after the American dream. 70 years of happiness.
But, at a certain moment, Deng said: “Market socialism!”. Greedy companies immediately moved their productions to China. Producing didn’t cost anything and Chinese people worked a lot.
Therefore, more money for companies, more money for China.
And now, here we are: angry and futureless. And politics? It represents upset people. Or it stammers. But even those representing upset people are going to run out of answers and solutions.
And then? Then globalization is stuck. It’s dead. Everyone is trying to lock themselves home. From “America first” to “Padroni a casa nostra” – that is “owners in our own country”.
Anyway, in the future nobody could grow with only domestic products. Problems such as social unsafety and uncertain incomes will be commonplace. Everybody hopes that a new globalization – more organized and less strict – will come.
Will it?
It is quite improbable. Even impossible. While everyone keeps on being unprepared – especially politicians – two challenges are coming into sight: new technologic automation – which, to be clearer, is robotics – which is going to kill work, along with artificial intelligence and machine learning; and the African giant’s demographic growth, which is going to increase, along with a constant lack of money.

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