Today East Africa is an area including 250 million inhabitants, speaking the same languages and belonging to the same tribes. This area’s countries have sealed an agreement for free trade, which is still a little chaotic, but represents the beginning of something: the eastern part of Africa could become a single nation, one of many federations, having about 550 million inhabitants – if we include also Ethiopia – and therefore creating a force, from a demographic point of view, similar to the European one. It could negotiate different and maybe better conditions, than the other three African blocks (or federations) – south, west and north – and then western and Asiatic ones.
The northern block is homogenous from a religious point of view, and also because of Mediterranean Sea and their westernization. Once they solve the Libyan situation, this block could have a common voice. West is already strong, because of Nigeria’s domination. If this country didn’t lose itself because of inequality, it could drag other countries, being some of them already virtuous. South is already a homogenous block: if we take for granted the rebirth of South Africa in the post-Zuma era and the end of Mugabe’s presidency for a matter of age, it is already at the starting line.
Those countries being clearly non-democratic would be isolated, excluded and insignificant.
Each and every block will speak for millions or billions of people. Therefore, it is possible that soon Africa won’t be a united entity, using one single voice to express its interests within its dialogue with foreign powerful countries.
Obviously, we can’t avoid the idea of an impartial African Union, speaking with foreign countries, but we fear that this possibility, which on paper is very similar to western models, would be impossible and complicated, as all imported models are.
It is easier to imagine that some countries, being close one another and having political elements in common, could create common mechanisms of dialogue, becoming strong and trusty interlocutors and managing to negotiate good trade conditions for every country involved.