Seen the contemporary technological and robotics revolution, we must look at the world from a different point of view.
Today we are finding out that China and its pro-capita incomes are getting richer. Today we are finding out that emerging countries are working to produce things for rich countries. And they are getting richer. Today we see that Africa is growing in terms of demography, because of half of its population being less than 15, a better education, a better health assistance and a better use of treatments. Infant and adult mortality are decreasing, and testosterone is doing its job to make growth increase – by 400% in next 80 years. From 1 to 4 billion people. Almost all future world growth will take place in Africa.
But will they have a job? And Asian people, who are going to emerge, will they have a job? And South Americans? And white people with no qualifications?
Let’s start from a premise: what happened during last 30 years?
Emerging economies received cheap works to produce and make rich countries’ productivity grow. People left the countryside to look for better incomes, and they ended up doing hard works. But they earn something, they got richer, sent their children to school, improved their life standards.
White people in USA and Europe were excited because they could buy a cheap shirt at Zara, completely unaware of the fact that they were losing those money, along with their incomes and maybe also their jobs.
When they realized it, it was too late. And they voted Trump, Brexit, Salvini, 5 stelle, Orban, hoping to be enclosed in their countries, surrounded by a barbed wire keeping Zara away and allowing them to get their money back.
But the horse has bolted. And time has passed.
Not only wealthy white countries, but all emerging economies will have to face the robotics, machine learning and AI revolution.
In short, unqualified jobs will be replaced by robots – according to McKinsey’s curve, in a 50 years’ time – because they cost less than people, are tax free and depreciable. Everywhere.
And we w0n’t need a cheap working class anymore. And they say that robotics will increase productivity. But for whom?
If a middle class – which can consume, make their houses beautiful and create a dream in which children are going to live better than their parents – doesn’t grow, what will they do with all this wonderful productivity, coming when no one can buy these products? And all people lacking high education and qualifications, what will they do?
These are questions with no answers.
All studies minimize the problem and state that, as with agriculture during industrial revolution, people will convert. From farmers into workers. But AI doesn’t need workers…
Therefore, this work crisis is going to be tougher, crueller and more socially expensive than the others. And it will be a world crisis, involving wealthy and emerging countries and leaving poor countries in their poverty.
Growth will be stuck; poverty and inequalities will increase.
And here I stop… to think about those 2 billion African young people who, I fear, will live the everlasting nightmare of unemployment.